RUMBLE IN LAS VEGAS TONIGHT – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  The final presidential debate takes place in Las Vegas tonight.  The big question is whether Donald Trump will do something new or different to resurrect his troubled campaign.  One poll out this morning, from Rasmussen, shows an even race:

Dead even. With nearly one-in-10 voters still looking beyond the top four candidates or undecided and less than three weeks to go until Election Day.

Today’s Rasmussen Reports White House Watch telephone and online survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump each picking up 42% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Seven percent (7%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while one percent (1%) opt for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. But three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

But, frankly, that's an outlier.  The Fox poll, out yesterday, is more reflective of the polling averages: 

Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Donald Trump with just three weeks until Election Day.

She has a six-point lead over Trump, 45-39 percent, in a new Fox News Poll of likely voters. Clinton was up by seven points last week (45-38 percent) and by two in early October (44-42 percent). Gary Johnson stands at 5 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent.

In the head-to-head matchup, Clinton’s up by 49-42 percent. It was 49-41 percent at the end of last week (Oct. 10-12).

COMMENT:  The general feeling among pundits is that Clinton holds a five to ten-point lead, and that she is heavily favored to win the election.  Indeed, much of the political discussion is now shifting to control of Congress.  The Democrats are given a pretty good chance of taking control of the Senate, especially if there's a last-minute Clinton surge, and an outside chance of taking the House.  But it should be pointed out that the Republican candidates are narrowly ahead in most of the battleground states.

Ticket splitting has decreased in recent elections, but that trend may be reversed this year.

October 19,  2016